| Above: Himiwari-8 satellite image of Typhoon Maria east of Taiwan at 0730Z (3:30 am EDT) Monday, July 9, 2018. Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/CSU. |
Still potent after its second stint as a Category 5 equivalent, Typhoon Maria continues to thrash its way across the Northwest Pacific on a steady course that will bring it to the China coast by Wednesday local time. As of 8 am EDT Monday, Maria was packing top sustained winds of 145 mph, putting it solidly in the Category 4 range, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
Maria’s top winds briefly surged to 160 mph on Sunday, and the storm maintained super typhoon status (top winds of at least 150 mph) for more than 24 hours. On Friday, Maria had reached a similar strength—in one of the fastest intensifications of any tropical cyclone on record—before weakening slightly as part of an eyewall replacement cycle. The well-organized typhoon’s fury was evident on Sunday in some amazing satellite imagery (see embedded tweet below). The storm was generating waves as high as 40 feet, according to JTWC.
Fueling Maria’s strength has been very low vertical wind shear—less than 5 knots as of Monday—and very warm sea surface temperatures of around 28°C (82°F).
Seeing eye to eye with Super Typhoon #Maria as the sun rises on 9 July - #Himawari - I think this may be even prettier than yesterday's...the three-dimensional view of the inside of the eyewall is awesome pic.twitter.com/nDWU8DuCZV
— Dan Lindsey (@DanLindsey77) July 8, 2018
The forecast for Maria
The large-scale forecast for Maria is straightforward: steering currents will keep the storm chugging west-northwest until it reaches the coast of China on Wednesday. Late Monday (U.S. EDT), Maria is likely to pass very close to Miyakojima Island (population 56,000) in Japan’s Miyako Islands. The outer bands of the typhoon were already visible on Miyakojima radar early Monday afternoon. Maria is expected to be a borderline Category 3 or 4 storm in the Miyako Islands.
Maria should pass far enough south of Okinawa to minimize the impacts there, as noted by weather.com.
One big question is how close Maria will come to the northern tip of Taiwan and its capital city, Taipei. The model consensus is for Maria’s center to pass just north of Taiwan, which would keep the island on the storm’s weaker south side, but only a slight jog southward could bring the eye over land. In any event, heavy rains and strong winds can be expected over west-facing slopes of northern Taiwan.
Maria’s encounter with Taiwan will chip away at its strength, but the storm is still expected to slam into the coast of China several hundred miles south of Shanghai, most likely as a weakening Category 2 typhoon still capable of torrential rain, damaging wind, and a localized storm surge.
Dr. Jeff Masters contributed to this post.
