Above: Residents of Nasoata, Fiji, evacuate to a primary school in Natabua ahead of Tropical Cyclone Harold. (Fijian Government)
A reintensifying Tropical Cyclone Harold continued its rampage through the South Pacific with a direct hit on the southern Fiji island of Kadavu at Category 4 strength. The center of Harold’s eye passed over the island between 0100Z and 0130Z Wednesday (1:00 and 130 p.m. Wednesday local time). At 0Z Wednesday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center rated Harold as a Category 4 storm with top sustained winds of 140 mph.
Radar loops and the JTWC’s 0Z and 3Z positions for Harold confirm that the storm made a brief landfall on Kadavu, passing quickly over the island’s rugged but narrow landmass.
Harold had weakened markedly after passing through the northern islands of Vanuatu, when it briefly reached Category 5 strength. Dry air infiltrated and disrupted the circulation, and the storm went through an eyewall replacement cycle that left it with a broad, amorphous eye. However, JTWC noted that Harold was once again reorganizing on Wednesday local time, with a new pinhole eye developing on microwave imagery.
As predicted, the dangerous left-hand side of Harold’s eyewall passed just south of Vita Levu, Fiji’s largest and most populous island. However, intense rainbands on the fringe of the eyewall swept across southern Vita Levu, and outer rainbands cascaded across Fiji’s other major island, Vanua Levu, just northeast of Vita Levu.
Huge tidal waves were reported in the Yasawa Islands northwest of Vita Levu, Misa Funaki (Fiji Meteorological Service) told Radio New Zealand. "There has been structural damage and mass flooding in some areas,” he added.
The highest rainfall totals reported for Wednesday by the Fiji Meteorological Service were on Vita Levu, including 213 mm (8.36") at Monasavu, 146 mm (5.74") at Rarawai, and 119 mm (4.68") at Naurosi International Airport on the island's southeast coast.
Winds gusted to 64 mph at Nadi International Airport, on the west coast of Vita Levu.
Fiji endured the deadliest storm in its history—and the costliest cyclone on record in the South Pacific—when Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Winston careened into Vita Levu on February 20, 2016. Winston took 44 lives and left $1.4 billion in damage (2016 USD). Packing sustained winds of up to 180 mph, it was the strongest cyclone on record in the Southern Hemisphere.
Forecast for Harold
In the short term, conditions remain supportive for Harold, with moderate wind shear of 10-15 knots and warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of around 28°C (82°F). However, a gradual weakening trend is expected to begin soon, as Harold moves toward an area with sharply higher wind shear and cooler SSTs. On its current track, Harold is on course to pass very close to Tonga early on Thursday local time, perhaps as a Category 3 storm. As was the case with Vita Levu, Harold may pass just far enough south for its northern eyewall to spare Tonga, but torrential rains and strong tropical-storm-force winds are a safe bet.
Tonga experienced its most powerful storm in living memory on February 11, 2018, when the northern eyewall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Gita passed directly over the archipelago’s largest and most populous island, Tongatapu. Damage in Tonga exceeded $220 million (2018 USD), and two deaths were reported.
In Vanuatu, recovery could take more than a year
Relief officials provided some of the first assessments of the toll wrought by Harold in northern Vanuatu, even as communications with the island nation remained sketchy. Lisa Faerua, the Oxfam director for Vanuatu, told Australia’s ABC that she expected the recovery process would take more than a year. The economic hit from of the coronavirus pandemic will only make things worse, she added, given that up to 40 percent of people employed in the tourism sector could lose their jobs.
Flights over the northern islands pummeled by Harold revealed destroyed crops, downed coconut trees, and unroofed buildings, ABC reported.
The last system this strong to affect any part of Vanuatu—and the strongest on record for the island nation—was Tropical Cyclone Pam, a Category 5 equivalent whose top winds of 175 mph (JTWC) made it the second strongest tropical cyclone on record for the South Pacific. Pam moved southward across several of Vanuatu’s smaller islands while at peak strength on March 13, 2015, and its western eyewall (the stronger side of the storm given the hemisphere and trajectory) passed over the east side of Efate Island. Pam’s death toll was relatively low given its strength (estimated at 15-16 people), but the storm was by far the most costly disaster in Vanuatu’s history, with damages totaling nearly $700 million (2015 USD). The island’s limited infrastructure was ravaged, and thousands of buildings on multiple islands were damaged or destroyed.
Harold’s path took it across some northern islands that were less hard hit by Pam, while the cyclone stayed well north of populous Efate Island.
